Avant la tempête
Tout semble bizarre, hormis la météo clémente de début septembre soulignant de nuages gris et d’une fraicheur automnale la première journée des chérubins et chérichous au collège et au lycée tous stéréotypés à la mode bordelaise long cheveux et grosse tignasse avec la mèche rebelle, chaussures fines en cuir affinant encore un peu plus des jambes cintrées toujours dans un slim (c’est pas passé de mode ???) et petit polo strict façon Lacoste mais en plus hype.
Et pourtant c’est bizarre. Aucun bouillonnement cette année, témoin d’un semblant de reprise d’activité. Aucun tassement humain dans le tram avec ses odeurs matinales réjouissantes pour le museau. Aucun embouteillage sur les quais. Tout est fluide. Tout semble tourner au ralenti même au taff. Peu de sortie. Peu ou pas d’enfant malade. 4 enfants en réanimation…pour une capacité de 18 lits. Non pas que je souhaite une catastrophe, nan ça signifie heureusement que nos têtes blondes pètent la forme mais c’est bizarre ce calme inhabituel, ce répit, cette douce indolence. Elle a le mérite au moins de ne pas être bousculé en ce début de reprise mais tout de même ce n’est pas normal.
Je ne vois que le verre à moitié vide…et j’ai ce pressentiment que nous mangeons actuellement notre pain blanc. Nous devrons sans doute dans les semaines à venir payer lourdement l’addition. Non je n’ai pas peur de cette pandémie sonnant l’alarme depuis avril. C’est une grippe. Une nouvelle grippe, un nouveau virus répondant au doux petit nom de A(H1N1)v ou pour être plus précis A(H1N1) California 2009, issu de la combinaison inédite entre ARN viraux du porc de l’oiseau et de l’homme. Même symptôme que la grippe saisonnière, même contagiosité, même complication, même mortalité. Ce qui va changer, c’est la masse, le nombre de personne atteinte, le taux d’attaque de 30% et la tranche d’âge (enfants adolescents et adultes jeunes) à cause de l’absence totale d’immunité. Oui le 3ème âge sera sans doute moins touché car ayant été exposé dans les années 50 à un virus d’origine russe sensiblement équivalent à celui de 2009 mais la mortalité restera aussi élevée dans cette tranche d’âge en raison des lourds antécédents accumulés au fil des années. Nous avons un plan…étudié pour un virus aviaire extrêmement virulent mais à contagiosité interhumaine délicate…mais inadapté pour ce virus parfaitement adapté à l’Homme. Difficile d’appliquer la phase 6 de ce plan, sachant que tout comme la grippe classique, 1/3 à la moitié des personnes touchées seront asymptomatiques, que la contagiosité existe de 48 heures avant l’apparition des premiers symptômes jusqu’ à 7 à 10 jours après la guérison, qu’actuellement la confirmation d’un cas de grippe H1N1 nécessite la réalisation d’une PCR extrêmement couteuse et limité à 40 études par jour pour la région aquitaine (lorsqu’on s’attend à des milliers de cas quotidiens !!). Difficile de ne pas douter de l’organisation sanitaire lorsqu’en temps normal les personnes absentes (en congés ou en arrêt maladie) ne sont pas remplacées. La prévention existe : des masques, des solutions hydro-alcooliques, des gants…mais pour être 100% efficace il ne faudrait pas enlever son masque ne serait-ce que pour manger, il faudrait continuellement s’asperger les mains de désinfectant, porter des gants en permanence pour éviter de se contaminer bêtement en posant ses mains sur la barre du métro ou en poussant son chariot au supermarché du coin !
Quant au vaccin…méfiance…il sera bien sûr disponible en temps et en heure mais il n’y aura pas forcément le recul nécessaire à son évaluation pour juger de son efficacité et de son innocuité…c’est bien pour cette raison qu’il ne sera aucunement obligatoire même pour les professionnels de santé !
Attendons de voir ce qu’il va se passer….ce sera sans doute une répétition générale avant une prochaine pandémie probablement plus virulente.
Tout ce calme me semble bien pathologique…
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Commentaires
“Oui le 3ème âge sera sans doute moins touché car ayant été exposé dans les années 50 à un virus d’origine russe sensiblement équivalent à celui de 2009″
Les babyboomeurs retraités,pourront se rendre utiles,en aidant les plus jeunes touchés par la grippe.
Et si nous laissions tout simplement faire la nature ? Les virus mutent mais les organismes s’adaptent. Nous vivons dans un monde si aseptisé et bourré d’antibiotiques que les germes & bactéries sont devenus multi-résistants.
Par contre, je suis d’accord pour appliquer les règles de savoir-vivre qui découlent du bon sens que nous ont inculqué nos aïeux : fais pas ci, fais pas ça, va te laver les mains ! A cheval sur ton bidet ! Ne te ronge pas les ongles, coupe-les et brosse-les ! Arrête de postillonner ! Mets ta main devant la bouche pour tousser ou éternuer ! etc, etc, etc.
@ 14141 : C’est comme tout nouvel évenement touchant à l’ordre mondial…il y a toujours une théorie du complot…d’ailleurs quand tu cliques sur Google complot grippal…
@ Dark Angel : Exact…”nos vieux” sont aussi souvent les plus sages !
@ Nachu : C’est une bonne idée envisagée par le plan national
@ TTO : Faut pas virer parano tout de même…quoique !
Complot? je pense pas… c’est surtout la bonne grosse grippe qui tombe au bon moment pour occulter dans les médias tous les problèmes profonds de notre pays en ce moment…
eh bien heureusement que nous sommes regonflés à bloc par ce retour des vacances…sinon bah on déprime…sinon d’accord avec Dark Angel..il faut appliquer les règles toutes simples de savoir-vivre..et là je crois qu’il y a encore du boulot..
Maintenant que j’écris un article sur mon blog j’ai un masque et des gants et j’évite d’éternuer sur mon écran pour ne pas contaminer mes lecteurs.
Depuis ton billet que j’ai lu hier et parce que c’est Toi qui en parlait je me suis mis à chercher des liens sur cette fameuse grippe parce que jusqu’à présent je ne voulais pas dramatiser mais je retrouve toujours la même chose que la véritable pandémie serait celle de l’argent et des deux gros laboratoires qui se partageraient la part du gâteau, Roche et Relenza !
C’est moins la maladie qui m’inquiète, que la réaction des populations depuis que j’ai vu à la télévision des gens en France se précipiter comme des fous dans les magasins le premier jour des soldes ! C’est tellement du chacun pour soi maintenant que j’imagine un jour les pharmacies complètement assiégées !!
En tout cas merci pour ce billet qui nous fait réfléchir avec ta sagesse…
Bises et bonne journée !!
@ Virginie : Oui effectivement une certaine suspicion peut exister lorsque qu’une manne financière est en jeu mais je ne pense pas que cette grippe soit une arme d’un groupuscule adepte de la théorie du complot même si certains faits d’actualités sont troublants (une firme pharmaceutique aurait signé un contrat juteux pour construite une usine pour produire des vaccins contre la Grippe au Mexique…1 mois avant le début de l’épidémie)
Ce qui m’énerve le plus c’est tout ce matraquage médiatique, cette politique de maintenir un climat de peur…mais cela est extrêmement efficace car à en juger la réaction de la majorité des gens que je croise…nous allons tous mourir ! (j’exagère mais si peu…)
@ Kindgay : drôle de coincidence tout de même :)…mais je ne partage aucunement cette théorie fumeuse
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